CMass. Power Ratings Update

Because it’s that time of year, I wanted to get out my unofficial power ratings on Monday night… well, Tuesday morning… to see where teams stand heading into the final week of the season.

These are an unofficial version of the unofficial rankings, but I am pretty confident with the math. We’ll have the “official, unofficial” standings out this Thursday from Jim Bergenholtz, who is going to be doing the tallying for the Central Mass. playoffs with former Algonquin coach – and my old gym teacher – Dick Walsh.

It will be interesting to see how things play out, as right now St. John’s and Marlboro are tied for the No. 2 spot. The Panthers will pick up 16 points if they beat Hudson on Thanksgiving, but the Pioneers will pick up 24 points if they beat St. Peter-Marian. Plus, you have to add in all the “unique points”, which come from games against different teams. For example, St. John’s will pick up two extra points if Holy Name, Longmeadow, Fitchburg or  St. John’s Prep win on Thanksgiving, since the Panthers haven’t played them. Also, St. John’s will get an extra point if Xaverian or Wachusett win, since they lost to them.

Meanwhile, the Panthers pick up two unique points if Central Catholic, Doherty, Gardner, Nashoba, Milford or North Middlesex win.

The teams gain the same number of points if Algonquin, Shrewsbury, Westboro or Leominster win, since both Marlboro and St. Johns’ beat those teams.

Confused yet?

If there is a tie at the end of the process, the first tiebreaker is Head-To-Head. If the teams didn’t play one another, they go to a power ratings tiebreaker. If they’re still tied, it’s a coin flip.

League champs are automatically in, so Wachusett, Marlboro and Holy Name already are in for D1, while Auburn and David Prouty are in for D2 and Clinton and Worcester Tech are in for D3. The D3B berth will be decided at the Narragansett/Murdock game on Thanksgiving.

The remaining playoff spots (5 in D1 and D3, 6 in D2) will be decided by power ratings. The teams are all seeded according to power ratings.

The playoffs will be the Tuesday after Thanksgiving, and feature 1 playing 8, 2 playing 7 and so on.

The winner of 1 vs. 8 will play the winner of 4 vs. 5 in the A Super Bowl. The winner of 2 vs. 7 will play the winner of 3 vs. 6 in the B Super Bowl. The Super Bowls will be played at a location to be determined on the following Saturday.

With that said, here is how the power ratings look as I see them:

DIVISION 1 POWER RATINGS

SCHOOL RECORD TOTAL POWER POINTS POWER RATING
1 Wachusett 10-0 188 18.8
2 St. John’s 8-2 182 18.2
3 Marlboro 10-0 182 18.2
4 Holy Name 9-1 160 16.0
5 Westboro 6-4 136 13.6
6 Nashoba 4-6 126 12.6
7 Fitchburg 5-5 120 12.0
8 St. Peter-Marian 7-3 120 12.0
9 Milford 5-5 118 11.8
10 Shrewsbury 4-6 116 11.6
11 Leominster 4-6 113 11.3
12 Burncoat 4-6 109 10.9
13 Gardner 4-6 103 10.3
14 Doherty 4-6 100 10.0
15 North Middlesex 2-8 87 8.7
16 Algonquin 1-9 67 6.7
17 North 0-10 54 5.4
18 South 0-10 53 5.3

DIVISION 2 POWER RATINGS

SCHOOL RECORD TOTAL POWER POINTS POWER RATING
1 Auburn 10-0 184 18.4
2 David Prouty 10-0 182 18.2
3 Northbridge 8-2 148 14.8
4 Bartlett 7-3 136 13.6
5 Uxbridge 7-3 125 12.5
6 Southbridge 6-3 111 12.3
7 Grafton 5-4 107 11.9
8 Millbury 3-6 96 10.7
9 Leicester 4-5 92 10.2
10 Shepherd Hill 3-7 99 9.9
11 Tantasqua 2-8 98 9.8
12 Nipmuc 3-7 92 9.2
13 Quabbin 3-7 83 8.2
14 Oxford 2-7 74 8.2
15 Quaboag 1-8 54 6

DIVISION 3 POWER RATINGS

SCHOOL RECORD TOTAL POWER POINTS POWER RATING
1 Oakmont 9-1 183 18.3
2 Clinton 9-1 180 18.0
3 Groton-Dunstable 8-2 160 16.0
4 Littleton 7-3 156 15.6
5 Worcester Tech 8-2 138 13.8
6 Assabet 6-4 1364 13.6
7 Narragansett 6-4 134 13.4
8 Murdock 7-3 130 13.0
9 Maynard 6-4 128 12.8
10 Hudson 4-6 119 11.9
11 Valley Tech 4-6 108 10.8
12 St. Bernard’s 3-6 95 10.6
13 Nashoba Tech 4-6 100 10.0
14 Lunenburg 3-7 99 9.9
15 Bay Path 5-5 94 9.4
16 Monty Tech 3-7 82 8.2
17 West Boylston 2-8 81 8.1
18 Ayer 1-9 63 6.3
19 Keefe Tech 1-8 54 6
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